by Calculated Risk on 2/11/2022 11:28:00 AM
Here are a few early forecasts for Q1 GDP.
1Q GDP tracking estimate to 2.0% qoq saar [February 4 estimate]
From Goldman Sachs:
We left our Q1 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at +0.5% (qoq ar). We also left our past-quarter GDP tracking estimate for Q4 unchanged at +7.1% (qoq ar). [February 9 estimate]
And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2022 is 0.7 percent on February 9, unchanged from February 8 after rounding. After this morning’s wholesale trade release from the US Census Bureau, the nowcast of the contribution of inventory investment to first-quarter real GDP growth decreased from -2.40 percentage points to -2.41 percentage points. [February 9 estimate]