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Intel faces ‘all-or-nothing’ situation, analyst says in downgrade

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March 5, 2022
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Intel Corp. may have gotten a callout in President Joe Biden’s State of the Union address earlier in the week, but on Thursday it fell further down Morgan Stanley’s list of chip names.

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Morgan Stanley’s Joseph Moore downgraded Intel’s stock
INTC,
+0.29%

to underperform from equal weight Thursday, as part of what he said was a move to “rebalance” ratings and “shift away from inexpensive cyclical stocks, at the margin.”

See also: Biden touts importance of U.S. chip manufacturing

“Downgrades of value stocks such as Intel and Qorvo
QRVO,
-1.61%

will let us focus on more actionable situations that offer relatively more attractive risk-reward going forward,” he continued.

Intel shares were off 2.4% in Thursday morning trading. Meanwhile, the PHLX Semiconductor Index
SOX,
-2.42%

shed 2.3% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average
DJIA,
-0.53%

fell 232 points, or 0.7%.

While Moore likes Intel’s new chief executive Pat Gelsinger and sees promise in the company’s longer-term opportunity to turn around its core business, he expects that Intel’s stock “will move sideways” over the next few years.

“While we would like to see Intel as a value stock, with optionality from a turnaround in the core business, the reality is that ramp of fixed costs creates a more ‘all-or-nothing’ situation where the company is going to need to succeed in these new businesses—and still turn around their core business—or be looking at long-term gross margin and cash-flow degradation,” he wrote.

Moore cut his price target on Intel shares to $47 from $55.

Opinion: Intel’s Gelsinger lays out turnaround plan, and investors are in for a long haul

He also downgraded shares of Qorvo Inc. and Teradyne Inc.
TER,
-2.12%

to equal weight from overweight.

On Qorvo, he sees a “significant chance of an inventory correction” around the second and third quarters, which makes the Morgan Stanley team “tactically a bit more cautious.”

As for Teradyne, Moore sees room for a “significant recovery” in the company’s Apple Inc.
AAPL,
-1.84%

business during 2023, but he’s “less optimistic about the non-Apple parts of the business next year.”

Qorvo’s stock is off 3.7% Thursday, while Teradyne’s stock is down 3.9%.

More positively, he upgraded shares of GlobalFoundries Inc.
GFS,
-2.86%

to overweight from equal weight, while boosting his price target to $72.50 from $70. GlobalFoundries shares are ahead 4.5% in Thursday’s session.

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