by Calculated Risk on 3/23/2022 10:08:00 AM
The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in February were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 772 thousand.
The previous three months were revised up slightly, combined.
Development. This is 2.0 percent below the revised January rate of 788,000 and is 6.2 percent below the February 2021 estimate of 823,000.
emphasis added
Click on graph for larger image.
The first graph shows New Home Sales vs. recessions since 1963. The dashed line is the current sales rate.
New home sales are now declining year-over-year since sales soared following the first few months of the pandemic.
The second graph shows New Home Months of Supply.
The months of supply increased in February to 6.3 months from 6.1 months in January.
The all-time record high was 12.1 months of supply in January 2009. The all-time record low was 3.5 months, most recently in October 2020.
This is above the top of the normal range (about 4 to 6 months of supply is normal).
The last graph shows sales NSA (monthly sales, not seasonally adjusted annual rate).
In February 2022 (red column), 65 thousand new homes were sold (NSA). Last year, 70 thousand homes were sold in February
The all-time high for February was 109 thousand in 2005, and the all-time low for February was 22 thousand in 2011.
This was below expectations, however sales in the three previous months were revised up slightly, combined. I’ll have more later today.
