by Calculated Risk on 7/08/2022 09:27:00 AM
The headline jobs number in the June employment report was above expectations, however employment for the previous two months was revised down by 74,000. The participation rate and the employment-population ratio both decreased slightly, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.6%.
In June, the year-over-year employment change was 6.3 million jobs.
Permanent Job Losers
Click on graph for larger image.
This graph shows permanent job losers as a percent of the pre-recession peak in employment through the report today.
In June, the number of permanent job losers declined to 1.273 million from 1.386 million in the previous month.
Prime (25 to 54 Years Old) Participation
Since the overall participation rate has declined due to cyclical (recession) and demographic (aging population, younger people staying in school) reasons, here is the employment-population ratio for the key working age group: 25 to 54 years old.
The 25 to 54 participation rate decreased in June to 82.3% from 82.6% in May, and the 25 to 54 employment population ratio decreased to 79.8% from 80.0% the previous month.
Part Time for Economic Reasons
From the BLS report:
3.6 million in June and is below its February 2020 level of 4.4 million. These individuals,
who would have preferred full-time employment, were working part time because their hours
had been reduced or they were unable to find full-time jobs.”
The number of persons working part time for economic reasons decreased in June to 3.621 million from 4.328 million in May. This is below pre-recession levels.
These workers are included in the alternate measure of labor underutilization (U-6) that decreased to 6.7% from 7.1% in the previous month. This is down from the record high in April 22.9% for this measure since 1994. This measure is lower than the 7.0% in February 2020 (pre-pandemic).
Unemployed over 26 Weeks
This graph shows the number of workers unemployed for 27 weeks or more.
According to the BLS, there are 1.336 million workers who have been unemployed for more than 26 weeks and still want a job, down from 1.356 million the previous month.
This does not include all the people that left the labor force.
Summary:
The headline monthly jobs number was above expectations; however, the previous two months were revised down by 74,000 combined.
