Analysts like this indie video game developer — with one bank saying it could soar over 200%

Indie video game developer tinyBuild ‘s stock is set to go up by more than 200%, according to investment bank Berenberg. The analysts said the 2023 outlook for the London-listed company looked “very encouraging” following its record fourth-quarter earnings Monday. They also said the stock is set for a rebound after shares in the company fell by more than a third in the past month. “We remain buyers and believe the shares should gain most if not all of the ground lost in recent weeks on the back of this update,” the analysts, led by Benjamin May, said in a note to clients on Jan 23. Berenberg expects the stock to rise by 208% to ?2.50 ($3.10) a share over the next 12 months. The stock was trading at ?0.80 on Tuesday afternoon. The bank isn’t the only one that likes the tinyBuild — although it’s the most bullish. The consensus price target of six analysts covering the stock indicates a potential upside of over 70%, according to FactSet data. All but one have a buy rating on the company’s shares. TBLD-GB 1Y line It comes amid some investor concerns about a sector-wide slowdown following the pandemic. However, the Berenberg analysts think tinyBuild will likely deliver full-year earnings “firmly” within the consensus estimate of between $23 million and $26 million for 2022. The company’s shares have fallen recently on concerns over the lackluster reaction to its latest game Hello Neighbour 2. However, the investment bank said the number of reviews had been trending higher after online influencers, such as Youtuber MrBeast, posted positive videos. Over the past two years, a lack of blockbuster titles has also meant there is pent-up demand for new games. For example, Take-Two Interactive released just three major games in 2022 compared to the five planned for 2023 and 19 scheduled for the next two years. Similarly, the French developer behind Assassins Creed, Ubisoft , canceled the release of three games last year and delayed its release of Skull and Bones for the second time last week. A lack of semiconductor chips and other hardware over the past year has also kept a lid on demand in the gaming sector. However, as supply constraints ease, demand is increasing as consoles and graphics cards become more readily available. How are tinyBuild’s competitors valued? Berenberg says Embracer , Nacon and Stillfront offer significant value at a 50% discount to the sector. However, team17 and tinyBuild offer the best value for those trading in line with the industry, according to the analysts, given their robust outlooks. Ubisoft’s “spiraling downgrade cycle” makes it unattractive, whereas Keywords Studios is most deserving of its 40% premium given its sector-leading earnings outlook, they added. Meanwhile, Berenberg said that Paradox and CD Projekt , which are trading at 60% and 90% premiums to the bank’s price targets, have vulnerable valuations.